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Senate Forecast: Republican Takeover Chances Improved, but Democrats Are...
Polls show that the Republican nominee has gained ground in a key Senate race, Wisconsin — and Republicans have put another Senate race, in West Virginia, squarely into play. But strong polling for...
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Illinois Voters, Unhappy With Candidates, Show Few Signs of Committing
We haven’t written as much about Illinois as some other Senate contests — but it may be taking on an increasingly important role as some other races that had once looked to be competitive, like...
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Democratic Polling Improves in Key Senate Races, Lengthening G.O.P. Takeover...
After having lost ground in the Senate forecast for three consecutive weeks, Democrats have demonstrated improved polling in several key matchups over the past week, dimming Republican hopes for taking...
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Democrats Remain Favored to Retain Senate
With only 15 days to go until the election, we’re going to be upping the frequency of our forecast updates somewhat.Today, we’ve rerun the numbers for the Senate, and they show little change in the...
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Pennsylvania Revisited
I’ve been fielding a lot of questions about the Public Policy Polling survey in Pennsylvania’s Senate race that gives Representative Joe Sestak, the Democrat, a 1-point lead over the Republican Pat...
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Senate Forecast Update: Don’t Call It a Comeback?
It’s silly season for election watchers, that time of year where every uptick or downtick in the polls is assumed to have great meaning: the first tip-off to a last-minute comeback, or the first sign...
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Senate Forecast Update: G.O.P. Still Seeking No. 51
Our latest forecast shows little change in Republican chances of taking over the Senate after the Nov. 2 election. They now have a 19 percent chance of doing so, according to our forecast model; their...
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House Forecast: 8 Days to Go
Democratic chances of retaining control of the House are essentially unchanged in today’s FiveThirtyEight forecast. They have a 21 percent chance of doing so, up from 20 percent on Friday; that means...
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G.O.P. Senate Odds Slip on Colorado, West Virginia Polls
While Republicans’ position is holding steady in the House — where they are 4:1 favorites to win control of the chamber according to our analysis — their chances of also taking over the Senate declined...
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Polls Show Wider Boxer Lead, Narrowing G.O.P. Takeover Path
We have been noting for several weeks that, with Republican chances having dwindled from slim to virtually none in a few East Coast Senate contests like Connecticut, Delaware, and the New York special...
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Angle Turns Corner in Nevada, but G.O.P. Senate Odds Drop
Sharron Angle, the Republican candidate in Nevada, has been improving her position in our forecast in recent days, and for the first time since the spring has better than a three-in-four chance to win...
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Senate Update: Washington Is the New Florida
Back during the 2008 presidential campaign, we coined a term called tipping-point states. A tipping-point state was one that might potentially put Barack Obama (or John McCain) over the top to his...
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Senate Update: California May Be Out of Reach for G.O.P.
A new poll from Field Research, highest-rated polling firm in our database, gives Barbara Boxer an 8-point lead, 49 to 41, over her Republican challenger, Carly Fiorina. While Ms. Fiorina’s chances had...
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Saturday Night Forecast Update: Calm Before the Storm
We have entered information from around 50 new surveys into our database. But most of them were either in less-than-critical states (two pollsters, for instance, decided to survey all three House races...
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The Ultimate Hour-by-Hour, District-by-District Election Guide
We’re gearing up for what is certain to be a very exciting and — given that there are a number of crucial races on the West Coast, particularly for the Senate — very long Election Night.Among other...
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Democrats’ Odds of Retaining Senate Improve
When we last took an overview of Senate races in December, Republicans appeared to be slight favorites to take control from Democrats, with a net gain of four to five seats representing the most likely...
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In Blue Hawaii, Senate Race Offers a Bit of Suspense
We continue our Presidential Geography series, a one-by-one examination of the peculiarities that drive the politics in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Here is Hawaii, the Aloha State....
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In Senate Races, Politics Are Local Again
We will soon be unveiling our forecast model for United States Senate races. But as a point of comparison and because there have been a number of important primaries for the Senate in recent weeks, I...
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FiveThirtyEight Forecast: G.O.P. Senate Hopes Slipping
Democrats are now favored to retain control of the Senate when the new Congress convenes in January, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast, breaking a summer stalemate during which control of the...
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Republicans Remain Slightly Favored To Take Control Of The Senate
If Americans elected an entirely new set of senators every two years — as they elect members of the House of Representatives — this November’s Senate contest would look like a stalemate. President...
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